低碳航運系列 | 航運業(yè)的去碳化到2050年航運業(yè)的溫室氣體排放量至少減少50%

潘細錄 2020-07-21

展開全文

航運業(yè)將遵照巴黎協(xié)定，并降低溫室氣體（GHG）排放量。2018年4月，國際海事組織通過了一項GHG減排戰(zhàn)略，其愿景是在本世紀內(nèi)盡快實現(xiàn)航運業(yè)的去碳化。目標是在2050年將航運業(yè)產(chǎn)生的溫室氣體總排放量與2008年相比至少減少50%，在2030年和2050年將平均碳強度(每噸英里的二氧化碳排放量)分別減少40%和70%。

減排50%是雄心勃勃的目標，除了包括減速在內(nèi)的其它節(jié)能措施，它可能還要求廣泛地采用零碳燃料。充分地降低排放是可能的，但也具有挑戰(zhàn)性。許多解決方案還并不成熟，需要付出巨大努力，而不僅僅是漸進式的效率改善。

與氣候相關的風險將是戰(zhàn)略業(yè)務發(fā)展的關鍵。這不僅限于直接排放法規(guī)和資產(chǎn)的有形風險，還包括消費者偏好、技術(shù)以及能源供應的重大轉(zhuǎn)變，這將影響航運資產(chǎn)的價值。

減排選項

目前已知和成熟的能效措施可以減少每艘船20- 30%的排放量，具體取決于船舶類型。這些措施不包括減速航行。未來的航運燃料需要達到零碳足跡，或近零碳足跡。中等至大范圍的減速航行(20- 50%的減速)在技術(shù)上是可行的，但需要得到商業(yè)認可及物流系統(tǒng)的重組。

降低硫氧化物和氮氧化物的排放，以及壓艙水處理將增加航運中的能源使用。壓載水處理、蒸餾、洗滌器、催化劑和廢氣循環(huán)都是增加能源需求的措施。解決當?shù)匚廴竞屯鈦砦锓N轉(zhuǎn)移是必要的，但隨著時間的推移，重點將越來越多地放在溫室效應氣體上。未來的設計必須解決所有污染物的問題。

DNV GL認為，與2008年相比，到2050年航運業(yè)將二氧化碳排放量減少50%是雄心勃勃的目標。這將需要應用目前尚未成熟的技術(shù)和解決方案，接受較低的航速，并部署大量零碳燃料，或碳中性可持續(xù)燃料。

大幅度的減排將增加運輸成本，如果成本太高，解決方案則將無法實施。實現(xiàn)減排的關鍵是開發(fā)解決方案，提高解決方案成熟度，及進一步升級解決方案，使其達到成本可接受的水平。法規(guī)應輔之以其他政策措施和激勵措施，以推動技術(shù)發(fā)展和減排，同時確保航運活動不受限制。可能需要采取臨時的折中機制，以允許靈活的合規(guī)手段，來確保最具成本效益的減排。

航運業(yè)的各個公司應該評估其與氣候相關的風險，以避免不可預見的損失并抓住機遇。對于一家企業(yè)，氣候風險既包括與氣候變化相關的風險(物理風險)，也包括與向低碳經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型相關的風險(轉(zhuǎn)型風險)。轉(zhuǎn)型風險包括政治/法律風險、技術(shù)風險、市場風險和聲譽風險。

航運業(yè)不是唯一需要減少排放的領域，脫碳將是各個行業(yè)的全方位努力方向。金融穩(wěn)定委員會(FSB)應20國集團(G20)的要求，于2015年成立了氣候相關財務披露特別工作組，該工作組最近推出了公司氣候相關財務披露建議，以支持投資者、貸款人和保險承保人理解相應的重大風險。這些建議向企業(yè)發(fā)出了一個明確的信號，即氣候風險不再僅僅是一個非金融問題。DNV GL為船東提供關鍵洞察意見和咨詢服務，以識別及應對這些氣候風險。

Decarbonization of Shipping

GHG emissions from shipping to be reduced by at least by 50% in 2050

The shipping industry is expected to act upon the Paris Agreement and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In April 2018, the IMO adopted a GHG reduction strategy with a vision to decarbonize shipping as soon as possible within this century. The aim is to reduce total GHG emissions from shipping at least by 50% in 2050, and to reduce the average carbon intensity (CO2 per tonne-mile) by 40% in 2030 and 70% in 2050, compared to 2008.

The 50% emission reduction is ambitious and will likely call for widespread uptake of zero-carbon fuels, in addition to other energy efficiency measures, including speed reduction. Sufficient reductions are possible but challenging. Many solutions are not mature and will require major efforts, going beyond incremental efficiency improvements.

Climate-related risks will be a key strategic business issue moving forward. This is not limited to direct emission regulations and physical risks to assets, but entails major shifts in consumer preferences, technologies and energy supply, which will impact the value of shipping assets.

Reduction options

Currently known and mature energy efficiency measures can reduce emission per ship by 20 - 30%, dependent on ship type. This does not include speed reductions. Future fuels for shipping need to have a zero or near-zero carbon footprint. Moderate to extensive speed reduction (20 -50% reduction) is technically feasible but requires commercial acceptance and are structuring of the logistics system.

Reducing SOx and NOx emissions and treating ballast waterwill increase energy use in shipping. Ballast water treatment, distillates, scrubbers, catalyzers and exhaustgas circulation are all measures that increases energy need. Addressing local pollution and transfer of alien species is necessary, but over time the emphasis will increasingly be on GHG. All pollutants must be addressed in future designs.

DNV GL believes a trajectory for shipping resulting in a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2008 is ambitious. It willrequire application of currently immature technology and solutions, acceptanceof lower speed and deployment of large volumes of zero-carbon or carbon-neutral sustainable fuels.

Significantly reducing emissions will increase cost of transportation, but solutions will not be applied if they are too costly. The key to achieving reduction of emission is developing, maturing and scaling up solutions to a level where the cost is acceptable. Regulations should be supplemented by other policy measures and incentives to drive technology development and emission reductions, while at the same time ensuring the shipping activity is not restricted. Temporary offset mechanisms may be needed to allow flexible means of compliance and ensure reductions where it is most cost-effective.

Individual companies in the shipping industry should assess climate-related risks, to prevent unforeseen losses and tap into opportunities. Climate risks for an organisation include both risks related to a changing climate (physical risks) and risks related to the transition to a low-carbon economy (transition risks). Transition risks include political/legal risks, technology risks, market risksand reputational risks.

Shipping is not the only sector that has to reduce emissions, and decarbonization will be an all-encompassing effort for all sectors of the economy. The Task Forceon Climate-related Financial Disclosures, created by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) at the request of the G20 in 2015, recently launched recommendations for climate-related financial disclosures by companies to support investors, lenders, and insurance under writers in understanding material risks. The recommendations send a clear signal to companies that climate risks are no longer solely a non-financial issue. DNV GL supports ship owners with key insights and advisory services to identify and address these climate risks.