Since our last China Strategy Insight, Next level at 6.85, USDCNH has shot beyond 6.84 and had traded close to 6.85. The sharp RMB depreciation has reminded the market about the pair’s move between July 2015 and December 2016.

自上次中國戰(zhàn)略洞察，下一個水平6.85以來，美元兌人民幣已經(jīng)突破6.84并且已經(jīng)接近6.85。人民幣大幅貶值已提醒市場該貨幣對在2015年7月至2016年12月之間的走勢。

However, we see some key features which are different from the last time around:

1) In the spot market, non-financials were net sellers of the USD during the RMB depreciation, which was driven mainly by financials. Non-financials are not buying FX forwards aggressively. They turned from net sellers of FX forwards in May 2018 to buyers in June 2018, but the shift was much more moderate than in August 2015. From the perspective of outstanding forward positions, corporates have continued to add to their long forward positions of USDRMB since September 2017. The balance at the end of June 2018 is the largest since September 2015.

1）在現(xiàn)貨市場，非金融類人民幣在人民幣貶值期間是凈賣家，主要受金融驅動。非金融機構并未積極購買外匯遠期合約。他們從2018年5月的外匯遠期賣家轉向2018年6月的買家，但這一轉變比2015年8月要溫和得多。從優(yōu)秀的遠期頭寸來看，企業(yè)繼續(xù)增加自USDRMB以來的長期頭寸。 2017年9月。2018年6月底的余額是2015年9月以來最大的余額。

2) Domestic outbound-directed investment remains calm, while foreign direct investment continues. Domestic ‘outbound’ financial investors are not in a rush to move to the exit: investment funds under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) programme are not achieving much popularity these days. In contrast, foreign financial investors continue to pour inbound funds into China, which is exactly the opposite to what happened in H2 2015.

2）國內出境導向型投資保持平靜，而外國直接投資仍在繼續(xù)。國內“出境”金融投資者并不急于轉向退出：合格境內機構投資者（QDII）計劃下的投資基金近來并未獲得太多人氣。相比之下，外國金融投資者繼續(xù)向中國注入入境資金，這恰好與2015年下半年的情況相反。

3) Though the 6000-pip move from 6.25 to 6.85 in four months is the fastest depreciation since 1994, the real economy is not as worried as at the end of 2016. In particular, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has not intervened by using its FX reserves this time round, though it still has the capacity to intervene. Such a hands-off attitude is based on the fact that the current depreciation is driven by financials, without any significant outflows. We therefore expect a USDCNH level of 7.0 will no longer be out of the question in the eyes of the authorities.

3）雖然四個月內6000點從6.25上升到6.85點是自1994年以來最快的貶值，但實體經(jīng)濟并沒有像2016年底那樣令人擔憂。特別是中國人民銀行（PBoC）沒有干預通過這次使用其外匯儲備，盡管它仍然有能力進行干預。這種不干涉的態(tài)度是基于這樣一個事實，即當前的折舊是由財務驅動的，沒有任何重大的外流。因此，我們預計在當局看來，美元兌人民幣的7.0水平將不再是不可能的。

人民幣目前的疲軟可能會推動中國對非美國市場的出口。 2015年中期至2017年的人民幣指數(shù)的下跌成功支撐了中國出口到歐盟和東盟地區(qū)，分別是第二和第三大目的地中國的出口。 2018年5月和6月人民幣指數(shù)下跌至93，低于H1在我們看來，2017年將再次產(chǎn)生這樣的效果。

總之，鑒于穩(wěn)定的人民幣銀行間流動性和可能的美聯(lián)儲加息9月，美元兌人民幣仍有升空的空間。 此外，我們預計人民幣指數(shù)為八月份下降，可能降至90，并為中國出口提供支持。