感謝社群群友在社群里分享了很多政策評(píng)估方法（DID、RDD等）的數(shù)據(jù)、代碼，讓群友能夠一步一步地學(xué)會(huì)操作主流因果推斷計(jì)量方法。

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采用事件研究法Event study開(kāi)展的平行趨勢(shì)檢驗(yàn)和動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)分析的JDE最新文章

Berniell, I., et al. (2021). "Gender gaps in labor informality: The motherhood effect." Journal of Development Economics 150: 102599.

We estimate the short- and long-run labor market impacts of parenthood in a developing country, Chile, based on an event-study approach around the birth of the first child. We find that becoming a mother implies a sharp decline in employment, working hours, and labor earnings, while fathers' outcomes remain unaffected. Importantly, the birth of the first child also produces a strong increase in labor informality among working mothers (38%). All these impacts are milder for highly educated women. We assess mechanisms behind these effects based on a model economy and find that: (i) informal jobs’ flexible working hours prevent some women from leaving the labor market upon motherhood, (ii) improving the quality of social protection of formal jobs tempers this increase in informality. Our results suggest that mothers find in informal jobs the flexibility needed for family-work balance, although it comes at the cost of deteriorating their labor market prospects.

Chen, S. and X. Lan (2020). "Tractor vs. animal: Rural reforms and technology adoption in China." Journal of Development Economics 147: 102536.

Better institutions do not always advance technologies. China’s rural reforms during the early 1980s secured land tenure for peasants and dismantled large collective farms into small household farms, which transformed tillage technology. Using a novel data set of 1755 counties from 1976 to 1988, our event study exploits the county-by-county rollout of the reform. We find that the use of tractors plummeted after the reform, while the use of draft animals surged. Post-reform tractor use was more suitable to local factor endowments and farm size. Small tractors became more popular while the number of large tractors declined.

Marein, B. (2023). "Public health departments and the mortality transition in Latin America: Evidence from Puerto Rico." Journal of Development Economics 160: 102980.

This paper examines the role of public health in reducing mortality prior to modern medicine by studying Puerto Rico in the early 20th century. From 1930 to 1960, Puerto Rico experienced one of the fastest increases in life expectancy in history and completed the first mortality transition outside of Europe and Western offshoots. Using municipal-level data in an event study framework, I show that public health units (county health departments) caused around half of the reduction in infant and tuberculosis mortality from 1923 to 1945, without significantly increasing public expenditures. Public health units also reduced maternal mortality and stillbirths. I present descriptive evidence that more assistant midwives per capita correspond to larger declines in maternal mortality, suggesting the importance of the training of midwives by health units. This investigation provides a window into Latin America more broadly, since most countries in Latin America subsequently adopted public health units.

McGavock, T. (2021). "Here waits the bride? The effect of Ethiopia's child marriage law." Journal of Development Economics 149: 102580.

Child marriage is still common in the developing world: in 2012, one in three women was married by age 18, with more than 10% married before age 15. Beginning in 2000, Ethiopia's semi-autonomous regions raised the legal minimum age of marriage from 15 to 18. This study leverages the natural experiment arising from the staggered roll out of the policy in a difference-in-differences and event study framework. The results suggest that the reform delayed women's marriage, and in particular delayed marriages of girls under 16 by about 17 percent (6.8 percentage points) in areas where early marriage was more common prior to the reform. However, the effect of the reform, though larger, is insignificant among women belonging to ethnic groups with the strongest norms toward early marriage. Women's fertility was delayed and may be lower over their lifetimes.

Salemi, C. (2021). "Refugee camps and deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa." Journal of Development Economics 152: 102682.

To date, there have been few quasi-experimental efforts to evaluate the impact of refugee camps on host landscapes. Yet many stakeholders believe refugee camps lead to deforestation in nearby areas. I use data on camp locations and years of operation as well as secondary geospatial data to produce a high-resolution panel dataset of 0.01° tiles. My difference-in-difference specification with tile fixed effects exploits variation in camp openings and tile proximity to camps. F-tests on event study pre-trends provide support for the satisfaction of parallel trends prior to camp exposure. I find that within the rainforest biome, camps are associated with a small reduction in extensive margin forest loss (i.e., land clearing) and a small increase in intensive margin forest loss (i.e., gradual reductions in canopy cover). In the grasslands biome, camps lead to small increases in forest loss at the intensive margin but have no impact on the extensive margin.

采用雙重差分法DID開(kāi)展政策評(píng)估的的JDE最新文章

Bahar, D., et al. (2021). "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees." Journal of Development Economics 151: 102652.

We study the labor market impacts of the Permiso Especial de Permanencia program, the largest migratory amnesty program offered to undocumented migrants in a developing country in modern history. The program granted work permits to nearly half a million undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia in August 2018. To evaluate the effects of the program, we compare labor outcomes in departments that have larger and lower treatment intensity, before and after the program roll-out. We test the robustness of the difference-in-difference results to using three alternative instrumental variables, finding consistent estimates regardless of the instrument used. We are only able to distinguish negligible effects of the program on the formal employment of workers. These effects are negative for Colombian workers and positive for Venezuelan workers. For the case of Colombian workers, the effects are concentrated in highly educated and in female workers.

Bahrami-Rad, D. (2021). "Keeping it in the family: Female inheritance, inmarriage, and the status of women." Journal of Development Economics 153: 102714.

While female property ownership is associated with positive outcomes for women, their right to inherit property in patrilineal societies may also result in more constraining marriage norms. I test the following hypothesis: Where a woman inherits property, her male relatives are more likely to arrange her marriage to a cousin in order to keep her share of property within the male lineage. The increase in unearned income due to female inheritance also reduces women’s economic participation, especially in blue-collar jobs where women’s work is subject to social stigmas. Using a difference-in-differences design that exploits exogenous variation induced by a reform of inheritance laws in India in 2005, the study finds that women exposed to the female inheritance law are more likely to marry their paternal cousins and less likely to work, especially in agriculture. The paper also discusses possible implications for the evolution of marriage and gender norms in Islamic societies, where female inheritance is mandated by Islamic law.

Berry, J., et al. (2020). "Implementation and effects of India's national school-based iron supplementation program." Journal of Development Economics 144: 102428.

Reducing the rate of anemia is a primary public health concern in many developing countries. This paper studies the Indian government's school-based Iron and Folic Acid (IFA) supplementation program. We provide a descriptive analysis of program implementation patterns across 377 schools in the state of Odisha. We document that the more advantaged blocks had more consistent tablet distribution, and that distribution within the less advantaged blocks was less predictable, and plausibly random. We use this quasi-random variation to estimate the causal effect of the policy using a difference-in-differences strategy. The IFA program had no effect on hemoglobin levels at the mean, but there is a significantly larger effect for moderately anemic students in schools that were more recently distributing tablets, relative to schools that had run out of tablets. These results suggest that school-based supplementation has the potential to improve hemoglobin levels, but that breaks in supplementation – either due to inconsistent tablet distribution or the constraints of a school calendar – limit the long-term efficacy of school-based supplementation programs.

Bertoni, E., et al. (2019). "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria." Journal of Development Economics 141: 102249.

This paper quantifies the impact of the Boko Haram conflict on various educational outcomes of individuals living in North-East Nigeria during the period 2009–2016. Using individual panel fixed-effects regressions and exploiting over-time and cross-village variation in conflict intensity, we show that conflict reduces school enrolment. The negative effect is larger for children who are no longer of mandatory school age. We do not find differential effects by gender, religion, or type of residential location. Additional results from a difference-in-differences estimation strategy indicate that conflict reduces the years of education completed.

Brotherhood, L., et al. (2022). "Slums and pandemics." Journal of Development Economics 157: 102882.

How do slums shape the economic and health dynamics of pandemics? A difference-in-differences analysis using millions of mobile phones in Brazil shows that residents of overcrowded slums engaged in less social distancing after the outbreak of Covid-19. We develop and calibrate a choice-theoretic equilibrium model in which individuals are heterogeneous in income and some people live in high-density slums. Slum residents account for a disproportionately high number of infections and deaths and, without slums, deaths increase in non-slum neighborhoods. Policy analysis of reallocation of medical resources, lockdowns and cash transfers produce heterogeneous effects across groups. Policy simulations indicate that: reallocating medical resources cuts deaths and raises output and the welfare of both groups; mild lockdowns favor slum individuals by mitigating the demand for hospital beds, whereas strict confinements mostly delay the evolution of the pandemic; and cash transfers benefit slum residents to the detriment of others, highlighting important distributional effects.

Cai, X., et al. (2016). "Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China." Journal of Development Economics 123: 73-85.

This paper investigates whether environmental regulation affects inbound foreign direct investment. The identification uses the Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy implemented by the Chinese government in 1998, in which tougher environmental regulations were imposed in TCZ cities but not others. Our difference-in-difference-in-differences estimation explores three-dimension variations; specifically, city (i.e., TCZ versus non-TCZ cities), industry (i.e., more polluting industries relative to less polluting ones), and year (i.e., before and after the TCZ policy). We find that tougher environmental regulation leads to less foreign direct investment. Meanwhile, we find that foreign multinationals from countries with better environmental protections than China are insensitive to the toughening environmental regulation, while those from countries with worse environmental protections than China show strong negative responses.

Cao, J., et al. (2022). "Clans and calamity: How social capital saved lives during China's Great Famine." Journal of Development Economics 157: 102865.

This paper examines the role of social capital, embedded in kinship-based clans, in disaster relief during China's Great Famine (1958–1961). Using a county-year panel and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the rise in the mortality rate during the famine years is significantly less in counties with a higher clan density. Analysis using a nationally representative household survey corroborates this finding. Investigation of potential mechanisms suggests that social capital's impact on famine may have operated through enabling collective action against excessive government procurement. These results provide evidence that societal forces can ameliorate damages caused by faulty government policies in times of crisis.

Crost, B. and J. H. Felter (2020). "Extractive resource policy and civil conflict: Evidence from mining reform in the Philippines." Journal of Development Economics 144: 102443.

We estimate how a shift towards a more extractive resource policy, brought about by a regulatory reform of the mining sector, affected civil conflict in the Philippines. Our empirical strategy uses a difference-in-differences approach that compares provinces with and without mineral deposits before and after the reform. We find that the reform led to a large increase in conflict violence, most likely due to increased competition over control of resource-rich areas. The estimated welfare cost of this increase in violence is several orders of magnitude larger than the country's total revenue from taxes on mineral production.

Daniele, G., et al. (2023). "Pains, guns and moves: The effect of the U.S. opioid epidemic on Mexican migration." Journal of Development Economics 160: 102983.

In this paper, we study how a positive economic shock to an illicit industry might foster migration. In 2010, a series of reforms to the U.S. health care system resulted in a shift in demand from legal opiates to heroin. This demand shock had considerable effects on Mexico, the main supplier of heroin consumed in the United States. We exploit variation in potential opium production at the municipal level in a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, which compares Mexican municipalities with different amounts of opium-suitable land before and after 2010. We find that people fled out of municipalities more suitable for opium production, many to areas close to the U.S. border and into the United States. This is due to the increase in violence and conflicts, as municipalities more suitable for opium became highly valuable to drug cartels. Overall, almost 95,000 people migrate within Mexico and 22,000 emigrate to the United States.

Do, Q.-T., et al. (2018). "Can environmental policy reduce infant mortality? Evidence from the Ganga Pollution Cases." Journal of Development Economics 133: 306-325.

In many developing countries, environmental quality remains low and policies to improve it have been inconsistently effective. We conduct a case study of environmental policy in India, focusing on unprecedented Supreme Court rulings that targeted industrial pollution in the Ganga River. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the rulings precipitated reductions in river pollution and one-month infant mortality, both of which persist for more than a decade. We then estimate a pollution-mortality dose-response function across twenty-nine rivers in the Ganga Basin, instrumenting for pollution with its upstream counterpart. The estimation reveals a significant external health burden of river pollution, not just in the district of measurement, but also on downstream communities. It further provides suggestive evidence that reducing pollution was an important driver behind declines in infant mortality observed after the rulings.

Downey, M. (2021). "Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa." Journal of Development Economics 151: 102648.

Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which, following the September 11th attacks, demanded that countries take active steps to reduce terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence of government expansions and implement this test using subnational data on conflict, government presence, and public goods in Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.

Dustan, A. (2020). "Can large, untargeted conditional cash transfers increase urban high school graduation rates? Evidence from Mexico City's Prepa Sí." Journal of Development Economics 143: 102392.

This paper estimates the effects of a massive, minimally targeted conditional cash transfer program in Mexico City's public high schools on graduation rates, test scores, and school choice. Using a difference-in-differences approach that exploits variation in eligibility between students and cohorts within a high school, I find that this program had no appreciable effect on high school completion. The results are sufficiently precise to rule out policy-relevant effect sizes. Null effects persist for subgroups that could be candidates for a targeted program. End-of-high school exam scores are apparently unaffected by the program and effects on high school choices by eligible students are minimal. There is no evidence for heterogeneous effects with respect to implicit or explicit cost of attendance, suggesting that liquidity constraints are not a key driver of high school dropout in this urban setting. These results highlight the challenges of using cash to improve academic outcomes in cities.

Friedman, W. H. (2018). "Antiretroviral drug access and behavior change." Journal of Development Economics 135: 392-411.

Assessing the impact of antiretroviral-drug access on future HIV infections in Sub-Saharan Africa requires identification of the behavioral response. This paper combines geocoded information about the timing of introduction of ARVs in Kenyan health facilities with population surveys to estimate the impact of proximity to ARV providers on adolescent risky sexual behavior. A variety of difference-in-difference strategies yield a range of estimates of behavioral effects on pregnancy rates and self-reported sexual activity among 15-18 year-olds in areas where ARVs were introduced, from small to quite large. A simulation combining estimated behavioral responses with medical evidence regarding HIV transmission suggests increasing ARV access will reduce new HIV infections even with a very large increases in risk-taking.

Ham, A. and H. C. Michelson (2018). "Does the form of delivering incentives in conditional cash transfers matter over a decade later?" Journal of Development Economics 134: 96-108.

We study whether Honduran municipalities exposed to a conditional cash transfer program from 2000 to 2005 experience lasting effects on human capital and labor market outcomes. The government randomly assigned three forms of delivering program benefits across targeted municipalities: demand (vouchers), supply (clinic and school subsidies), and a combination of both. This program provides an opportunity to explore if and how differential exposure to incentives produces longer term effects. Using municipal-level panel data, these effects are estimated using difference-in-differences. We find that the form of delivering cash transfers influences the degree to which these programs make progress towards their objective of reducing future poverty. Compared to municipalities receiving support from the Honduran Poverty Reduction Strategy, our study indicates that exposure to demand-side incentives individually has no lasting impact. However, joint exposure to both demand- and supply-side incentives does lead to measurable improvements in schooling and labor market participation.

Heger, M. P. and E. Neumayer (2019). "The impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on Aceh’s long-term economic growth." Journal of Development Economics 141: 102365.

Existing studies typically find that natural disasters have negative economic consequences, resulting in, at best, a recovery to trend after initial losses or, at worst, longer term sustained losses. We exploit the unexpected nature of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami for carrying out a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis of flooded districts and sub-districts in Aceh. The Indonesian province saw the single largest aid and reconstruction effort of any developing world region ever afflicted by a natural disaster. We show that this effort triggered higher long-term economic output than would have happened in the absence of the tsunami.

Helfand, S. M., et al. (2019). "A matter of time: An impact evaluation of the Brazilian National Land Credit Program." Journal of Development Economics 141: 102361.

This paper provides an impact evaluation of the Programa Nacional de Crédito Fundiário, a market assisted land reform program in Brazil. The paper uses a panel dataset and pipeline control group to evaluate the program's impact on agricultural production and earned income, using a difference-in-differences model with either municipal or individual fixed effects. The heterogeneous effect of additional years of land ownership is investigated. The findings suggest that the program increases production and earned income by about 74% and 37%, but only after four years of land ownership. The conclusions are supported by a number of robustness tests, although considerable attrition and potential bias due to unobserved variables suggests caution. The benefits of the program largely go to making debt payments. If the impact on income continues to grow, as it did in the first five years, improvements in net wealth and current welfare could both be achieved.

Imbruno, M. and T. D. Ketterer (2018). "Energy efficiency gains from importing intermediate inputs: Firm-level evidence from Indonesia." Journal of Development Economics 135: 117-141.

This paper investigates whether importing intermediate goods improves firm-level environmental performance in a developing country, using data from the Indonesian manufacturing sector. We build a simple theoretical model showing that trade integration of input markets entails energy efficiency improvements within importers relative to non-importers. To empirically isolate the impact of firm participation in foreign intermediate input markets we use 'nearest neighbour’ propensity score matching and difference-in-difference techniques. Covering the period 1991–2005, we find evidence that becoming an importer of foreign intermediates boosts energy efficiency, implying beneficial effects for the environment.

Imelda (2020). "Cooking that kills: Cleaner energy access, indoor air pollution, and health." Journal of Development Economics 147: 102548.

Dirty cooking fuels are a significant source of indoor air pollution in developing countries, resulting in millions of premature deaths. This paper investigates the health impacts of household access to cleaner fuel using a nationwide fuel-switching program, the largest household energy transition project ever attempted in the developing world, affecting more than 50 million homes in Indonesia. This program focused on replacing a dirty cooking fuel (kerosene) with a cleaner one (liquid petroleum gas). The difference-in-differences estimates and within-mother estimates suggest that the program led to a significant decline in infant mortality with the effects concentrated on the perinatal period. The program also reduced the prevalence of low birth weight, suggesting that fetal exposure to indoor air pollutants is an important channel. These findings elucidate how a policy that combines a subsidy on the use of cleaner-burning fuel with a restriction on the dirty fuel can pay public health dividends.

Johnson, N. D. and M. Koyama (2017). "Jewish communities and city growth in preindustrial Europe." Journal of Development Economics 127: 339-354.

We study whether cities with Jewish communities grew faster than cities without Jewish communities in Europe between 1400 and 1850. We match data on city populations from Bairoch (1988) with data on the presence of a Jewish community from Roth and Wigoder (2007). Our difference-in-differences results indicate that cities with Jewish communities grew about 30% faster than comparable cities without Jewish communities. To establish causality, we create time-varying instrumental variables which rely only on the spatially extended network of Jewish communities in order to predict Jewish presence in a given city. We provide evidence that the advantage of cities with Jewish communities stemmed in part from Jewish emancipation and their ability to exploit increases in market access after 1600.

Kalsi, P. (2018). "The impact of U.S. deportation of criminals on gang development and education in El Salvador." Journal of Development Economics 135: 433-448.

This paper links American criminal deportations with gang activity and reduced schooling in El Salvador. Regions with greater business density before the deportations are argued to be suitable for future gangs, as extortion of businesses is their primary source of income. These regions are shown to become disproportionately more violent with more criminal deportations. Using variation in time and location, I estimate a difference-in-differences model to study the impact of gang exposure on children's education. Gangs hinder basic education (comparable to U.S. grades 1–9), with boys experiencing a greater loss in schooling. I reject the threat of a pre-existing trend and selective migration in high business density areas. The results do not appear to be explained by violence alone, but by a weakening economy in gang-prone areas that could have lowered the returns to schooling. Boys' involvement in gangs and increased employment could explain their larger loss of schooling.

Liu, M., et al. (2021). "The costs of “blue sky”: Environmental regulation, technology upgrading, and labor demand in China." Journal of Development Economics 150: 102610.

To cope with the stricter environmental regulation, manufacturing firms need to carry out pollution reduction activities and change their optimal production decisions, which may affect their labor demand. Using a ten-year firm-level panel dataset (1998–2007), we use an estimation technique pairing propensity score matching (PSM) with a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator to examine the impacts of a national air pollution control policy on employment in China. We find that China's Key Cities for Air Pollution Control (KCAPC) policy effectively lowered sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by approximately 26%. The new environmental regulation significantly reduced manufacturing labor demand by approximately 3%. Most importantly, firms reduce pollution emission mainly by upgrading production technology so the decline in labor is partly due to the increase in labor productivity brought about by technological progress. As a result of pollution reduction, low-skilled employees and workers in domestic manufacturing firms are more affected by environmental regulation in China.

Lu, F., et al. (2021). "Marriage outcomes of displaced women." Journal of Development Economics 152: 102684.

To learn more about the long-term consequences of displacement on women, we examine the marriage market outcomes of forcibly displaced women. Using data from 12 representative surveys in 7 countries, we document that women who are adolescents at the time of displacement are more likely to be married. This pattern is robust to choice of comparison group and across countries. We do not find this pattern for displaced adolescent men. We provide additional evidence on this relationship by using unique features of the partition of India in 1947, an event which resulted in large-scale bilateral displacement between India and newly formed Pakistan. Specifically, we use the plausibly exogenous timing and the arbitrary nature of the border drawing to motivate a difference-in-difference design. Using a representative household survey collected in 1973, we find that women who were adolescents when they were displaced by partition were significantly more likely to marry earlier, in line with the descriptive cross country evidence. These women were less likely to continue their education and had more children overall, but do not appear to have married spouses with worse observable characteristics.

Lyu, X. (2022). "Car restriction policies and housing markets." Journal of Development Economics 156: 102850.

This paper investigates the differential impacts of a unique car restriction policy – the car purchase lottery in Beijing – on the housing markets across locations within the city. I use a difference-in-differences approach to compare heterogeneous neighborhoods before and after the implementation of the policy. Housing prices experience a relative increase at locations closer to common destinations (employment centers: 0.7% per kilometer; primary schools: 3.3% per kilometer) and with better access to public transit (subways: 1.2% per kilometer; buses: 0.08% per line). These changes reflect capitalization of the car restriction policy and imply a large wealth redistribution as large as 6 years of average disposable income across homeowners. The results are relevant to policy, both in the context of unintended consequences and for efforts to develop offsetting measures.

Masset, E., et al. (2020). "Aiming high and falling low: The SADA-Northern Ghana Millennium Village Project." Journal of Development Economics 143: 102427.

This article assesses the impact of the Northern Ghana Millennium Village Project. We estimate project effects on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicators using a difference-in-difference approach applied to matched villages and households using a sub-classification of the propensity score. The project improved some MDG indicators but, with few exceptions, impacts were small and core welfare indicators, such as monetary poverty, undernutrition and child mortality, remained unaffected. We found no spillover effects of the project to neighbouring areas and no displacements of development expenditure by local government and NGOs. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention and concluded that MVP did not produce the expected cost-saving synergies. We attribute the lack of impact to poor project design, redundancy of the interventions, and excessively high expectations.

McGavock, T. (2021). "Here waits the bride? The effect of Ethiopia's child marriage law." Journal of Development Economics 149: 102580.

Child marriage is still common in the developing world: in 2012, one in three women was married by age 18, with more than 10% married before age 15. Beginning in 2000, Ethiopia's semi-autonomous regions raised the legal minimum age of marriage from 15 to 18. This study leverages the natural experiment arising from the staggered roll out of the policy in a difference-in-differences and event study framework. The results suggest that the reform delayed women's marriage, and in particular delayed marriages of girls under 16 by about 17 percent (6.8 percentage points) in areas where early marriage was more common prior to the reform. However, the effect of the reform, though larger, is insignificant among women belonging to ethnic groups with the strongest norms toward early marriage. Women's fertility was delayed and may be lower over their lifetimes.

Mehmood, S. and A. Seror (2023). "Religious leaders and rule of law." Journal of Development Economics 160: 102974.

In this paper, we provide systematic evidence of how historical religious institutions affect the rule of law. In a difference-in-differences framework, we show that districts in Pakistan where the historical presence of religious institutions is higher, rule of law is worse. This deterioration is economically significant, persistent, and likely explained by religious leaders gaining political office. We explain these findings with a model where religious leaders leverage their high legitimacy to run for office and subvert the Courts. We test for and find no evidence supporting several competing explanations: the rise of secular wealthy landowners, dynastic political leaders and changes in voter attitudes are unable to account for the patterns in the data. Our estimates indicate that religious leaders expropriate rents through the legal system amounting to about 0.06 percent of GDP every year.

Rahman, M. H., et al. (2022). "“Storm autocracies”: Islands as natural experiments." Journal of Development Economics 159: 102982.

We exploit the exogenous variation in the timing and intensity of storms in island countries to estimate the storms' effect on the extent of democracy. Using a rich panel dataset spanning the period 1950–2020, our difference-in-differences estimations, which allow multiple treatments over time, indicate that storms trigger autocratic tendencies in island countries by reducing the Polity2 score by about four percent in the following year. These findings resonate with our simple dynamic game-theoretical model, which predicts that governments move towards autocracy by placating citizens with post-disaster assistance in response to citizens’ insurgency threat in the absence of relief, giving rise to the political regime of “storm autocracies”. Our results survive a battery of robustness analyses, randomization tests, potential spatial biases, and other falsification and placebo checks.

Salemi, C. (2021). "Refugee camps and deforestation in Sub-Saharan Africa." Journal of Development Economics 152: 102682.

To date, there have been few quasi-experimental efforts to evaluate the impact of refugee camps on host landscapes. Yet many stakeholders believe refugee camps lead to deforestation in nearby areas. I use data on camp locations and years of operation as well as secondary geospatial data to produce a high-resolution panel dataset of 0.01° tiles. My difference-in-difference specification with tile fixed effects exploits variation in camp openings and tile proximity to camps. F-tests on event study pre-trends provide support for the satisfaction of parallel trends prior to camp exposure. I find that within the rainforest biome, camps are associated with a small reduction in extensive margin forest loss (i.e., land clearing) and a small increase in intensive margin forest loss (i.e., gradual reductions in canopy cover). In the grasslands biome, camps lead to small increases in forest loss at the intensive margin but have no impact on the extensive margin.

von der Goltz, J. and P. Barnwal (2019). "Mines: The local wealth and health effects of mineral mining in developing countries." Journal of Development Economics 139: 1-16.

We assess health and wealth impacts of mineral mining using micro-data from about 800 mines in 44 developing countries. Gains in asset wealth (0.3 standard deviations) coexist with a higher incidence of health conditions linked to heavy metal toxicity: anemia among women (ten percentage points), and stunting in young children (five percentage points). Consistent results emerge from a range of distinct identification strategies. Two difference-in-difference tests exploit information on mineral and pollutant characteristics to show that the observed health effects are due to pollution: impacts arise only near mines where metal contamination is to be expected, and the recovery of blood hemoglobin levels in women after childbirth shows a characteristic signature of lead toxicity. Our results add to the nascent literature on health-wealth tradeoffs near industrial operations in developing countries.

Wang, F., et al. (2021). "Labour market reform and firm-level employment adjustment: Evidence from the hukou reform in China." Journal of Development Economics 149: 102584.

This paper empirically investigates whether the nature of firm-level employment adjustment is affected by the flexibility of the labour market. Specifically, we take advantage of differences in local labour market conditions created by the non-uniform implementation of the hukou reform in China. Variations in the implementation across cities and time allow us to identify the employment effects of the reform by comparing firms in regions with hukou reform to those in regions without. Combining firm-level data and city-level hukou reform data from 1998 to 2007, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach to address this question. The empirical results show that firms exposed to the hukou reform have higher employment adjustment rates on average than similar firms without reform, indicating that an increase in labour market flexibility allowed more employment adjustment. We also find evidence that tariff reductions are associated with greater employment adjustment in reform than non-reform cities.

Yamasaki, J. (2020). "Time horizon of government and public goods investment: Evidence from Japan." Journal of Development Economics 146: 102518.

Whether the longer tenure of political agents leads to better public policies is a central question in political economy. Tenure security extends the time horizons of dictators, which may explain economic growth under extractive institutions. This study estimates the causal impact of longer time horizons of local dictators using sub-national data from 17th-century Japan. Local lords at that time faced the risk of transferring their domains by order of the central government. In 1651, the death of the executive leader of the central government caused a policy reform, and it disproportionally reduced the transfer risk faced by particular local lords (insiders) for plausibly exogenous reasons. By digitizing the historical dataset and using the difference-in-differences method, I find relatively greater agricultural investment in insiders' domains after 1651. Supplemental analyses indicate that this effect is driven by the longer time horizon channel rather than the career concern or local experience channel.

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