新的風險格局 A new pattern of risk

地緣政治動蕩

Geopolitical upheaval

很多國家的政治出現(xiàn)分化和“倒退”，國際關(guān)系進一步惡化。這些動蕩可能持續(xù)存在，導(dǎo)致各國在關(guān)鍵優(yōu)先領(lǐng)域的合作努力受到挑戰(zhàn)。

Political polarization and "retrogression" have taken place in many countries and international relations have deteriorated further. These upheavals are likely to persist and pose challenges to the cooperative efforts of states in key priority areas.

經(jīng)濟風險

Economic risk

隨著大國之間經(jīng)濟對抗的日益加劇，全球經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)出一致放緩的跡象。

The global economy is showing signs of a concerted slowdown as economic rivalries between the big powers intensify.

氣候問題應(yīng)對不足

Inadequate response to climate change

自然巨災(zāi)頻發(fā)，其造成的影響也愈加深遠，在此背景下，國際公約的約束力不強，給投資者和公眾的行動帶來了壓力。對于各國來說，2020年是關(guān)鍵的一年，各國應(yīng)當以此為契機加速實現(xiàn)重大減排目標并推動適應(yīng)性投資蓬勃發(fā)展。

Against the background of frequent natural catastrophes and their increasingly far-reaching effects, international conventions are not binding, putting pressure on investors and the public to act. The year 2020 is a pivotal year for countries to use as an opportunity to accelerate the achievement of major emission reduction targets and boost adaptive investment.

生物多樣性喪失的影響

Impact of biodiversity loss

許多生態(tài)系統(tǒng)都在衰退甚至面臨滅絕的風險。生物多樣性的喪失將給社會、經(jīng)濟和地球健康帶來不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的后果。

Many ecosystems are in decline and are at risk of extinction. The loss of biodiversity will have irreversible consequences for society, the economy and the health of the planet.

技術(shù)治理不足

Inadequate technical governance

新興技術(shù)風險可能破壞社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、危害經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定、加劇地緣戰(zhàn)略競爭并給國家和國際安全帶來壓力。要更好地應(yīng)對系統(tǒng)性風險，需要在各個層面對技術(shù)治理實行重大調(diào)整和更新。

Emerging Technology risks can disrupt social networks, undermine economic stability, exacerbate geostrategic competition and put pressure on national and international security. A Better response to systemic risks will require significant adjustments and updates to technical governance at all levels.

艱難運行中的衛(wèi)生體系

A struggling health system

不斷變化的社會、環(huán)境、人口和技術(shù)趨勢正在使全球衛(wèi)生體系承壓。雖然變革性技術(shù)、藥品和保險可以改善醫(yī)療保健水平，但它們也帶來了新的風險，迫使人們不得不做出新的權(quán)衡取舍。

Changing social, environmental, demographic and technological trends are putting pressure on the global health system. While transformative technologies, drugs and insurance can improve health care, they also create new risks that force new trade-offs.

2020年全球風險展望

Global Risk Outlook 2020

據(jù)《全球風險報告》預(yù)測，未來一年國內(nèi)和國際分化風險以及經(jīng)濟放緩風險將進一步加劇。78％的調(diào)查受訪者表示，他們預(yù)計“經(jīng)濟對抗”和“國內(nèi)政治分化”風險將在2020年進一步增加。全球?qū)＜疫€認為，極端高溫天氣、自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)破壞以及旨在破壞運營和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或者竊取數(shù)據(jù)/金錢的網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊風險也將進一步加劇。

The Global Risks Report predicts that the risks of domestic and international fragmentation and economic slowdown will intensify in the coming year. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they expected the risks of "economic confrontation" and "domestic political polarization" to increase further in 2020. Global experts also believe that the risk of extreme heat, damage to natural ecosystems and cyber attacks aimed at disrupting operations and infrastructure or stealing data / money will increase.