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TAKE CONTROL 23, 1999 - 02:50 pm 藥渣 譯 In my mind, control is an important issue that has a great deal to do with understanding the process of trading and doing it successfully. There many parts of the trading process where exercising control is relatively easy and other parts of the process where control is much more difficult. For example, the entry into a trade is a point where we are very much in control. We set the conditions and the market must meet our conditions or we will simply refuse to participate. This is clearly the point in the trading process where we can exercise maximum control. 在我看來，交易中的控制能力是一個(gè)非常重要的問題，不理解這一點(diǎn)就無法很好的理解交易過程，也無法成功的交易。在交易過程中，有些部分相對(duì)較容易控制，有些部分相對(duì)較難控制。例如，我們能非常容易的控制入市時(shí)機(jī)。我們可以設(shè)置一些條件，當(dāng)市場滿足我們的條件時(shí)我們就入市，反之我們就拒絕交易。很明顯，在交易過程的入市時(shí)機(jī)選者上我們擁有最大的控制權(quán)。 詞匯筆記： there 1)在那里，到那里 There he found the lamp. 他在那里找到了燈 2)在這一點(diǎn)上，在這里 There I cannot agree with you. 在這一點(diǎn)上我不能同意你的意見。Don’t stop there—tell me what happened next! 別在這里停下，告訴我后來怎樣了！There you are mistaken.在這一點(diǎn)上你可錯(cuò)了。 I can recall attending some lectures many years ago by George Lane (of stochastic indicator fame) when he revealed to the audience a list of items that he wanted to see before he entered a trade. His pre-entry checklist had twenty-seven conditions on it. Being a skeptic of complex trading strategies I don't recall what any of these twenty seven items were except I'm sure at least one of them was the stochastic indicator. At the point of carefully reviewing his checklist George was very much in control of the situation and if the market didn't do exactly what he wanted he didn't trade. 我還記得幾年前我參加過喬治做過的一些講座（關(guān)于很有名氣的隨機(jī)指標(biāo)），他向聽眾們揭示了他在進(jìn)入一筆交易前，市場必須滿足的條件清單，一共有27項(xiàng)。由于我對(duì)復(fù)雜的交易策略持懷疑態(tài)度，現(xiàn)在我記不起27項(xiàng)中的任何一項(xiàng)，但至少有一點(diǎn)我能肯定的是其中有一項(xiàng)是隨機(jī)指標(biāo)。通過仔細(xì)檢查條件清單，喬治可以非常完美的控制入場時(shí)機(jī)，如果市場不滿足要求，他就不交易。 As I often point out in my lectures, entries are the easy part of trading. This is because each of us has maximum control at this point. We can exercise as much or as little control as we like. George Lane can require every one of his twenty-seven criteria and I can require my usual two setups and a trigger condition. However the control situation changes drastically once we enter the trade. Our ability to control all the elements of the trade now becomes much more difficult and far from absolute. Once we enter a futures trade we know that we must exit that trade within a limited period of time or we are going to be in trouble because the contract will expire. Even stock traders who don't need to be concerned about expiring contracts must exit their positions correctly if they wish to maximize their profits. 我經(jīng)常在演講中指出，入市是交易中最容易的部分。這是因?yàn)槲覀兠恳粋€(gè)人在這一點(diǎn)上擁有最大的控制力，我們想怎么控制就怎么控制，可以控制的多一點(diǎn)，也可以控制的少一點(diǎn)。喬治要求市場必須滿足他的27項(xiàng)規(guī)則，我要求市場必須滿足我通常使用的兩個(gè)參數(shù)和一個(gè)啟動(dòng)條件。然而一旦我們進(jìn)入交易，控制情況就會(huì)急劇變化。我們控制交易中所有元素的能力變得越來越差，幾乎不可能做到完全的控制力。一旦我們進(jìn)入期貨市場，我們知道在一定時(shí)間內(nèi)我們必須退出市場，因?yàn)槠谪浐霞s是有期限的。即使股票交易者無須考慮合約期限，如果他們要達(dá)到最大化贏利，也必須在合適的時(shí)機(jī)退出交易。 Exits are much more difficult than entries because we can not simply reverse the entry process and require that the market do thus and such. Once we are in the trade George Lane and I can both throw our lists out the window because we can no longer dictate our terms to the market. The market is now in control and we must be prepared to react to whatever the market does. The market can do anything it wants once we have entered our trade and we can be assured that the market doesn't care what conditions might be on our list or what our preferences might be. Once we enter the trade we are at the mercy of the market the market operates according to its own list and that list of possibilities is much larger than George Lane's meager list of twenty-seven items. The market's options are limitless. It can do anything it wants whenever it wants and somehow we must be prepared to deal with it. Where is our control now? 退出比進(jìn)入更困難，因?yàn)槲覀儫o法簡單的讓讓交易過程逆轉(zhuǎn)，也不能讓市場這樣或那樣走。一旦進(jìn)入交易，我和喬治都可以把我們的入市條件清單扔到窗外，因?yàn)槲覀冊(cè)僖膊荒芟蚴袌鱿旅盍恕，F(xiàn)在由市場來控制我們，現(xiàn)在我們必須準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)市場的任何變化。一旦我們進(jìn)入交易，市場可以做他想做的任何事，我們所能確定的是市場永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)關(guān)心我們的條件清單或者我們的喜好。一旦我們進(jìn)入市場，我們就得任由市場擺布，市場根據(jù)他自己的條件清單來走，其清單的可能數(shù)目是無限的，相比之下喬治的27條顯得微不足道。市場的選擇是無限的，無論在任何時(shí)候它都可以做它想做的事，我們必須以某種發(fā)式準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)措施。現(xiàn)在我們能控制什么？ 詞匯筆記 meager=meagre 貧乏的，不足的；瘦的。 As we hold our trade we must be prepared for big moves against us and big moves in our favor. (Surprisingly the big moves against us are much easier to deal with than the moves in our favor. We will talk more about this in just a minute.) Among the market's limitless possibilities are gaps, reversals, limit moves, whipsaws, and perhaps worst of all, boring sideways action that makes us wish we were trading something else. The market may present us with inside days, outside days, reversal days, key reversal days, high volume days, low volume days, expanding ranges, contracting ranges, acceleration, and deceleration. We can be faced with days that are so big that the chart looks like a propeller on the end of a stick or days that are so small they just look like dots. 當(dāng)我們持有倉位的時(shí)候，我們必須準(zhǔn)備好市場可能出現(xiàn)的不利于我們的大幅運(yùn)動(dòng)或有利于我們的大幅運(yùn)動(dòng)（令人驚奇的是，與有利的大幅運(yùn)動(dòng)相比，我們能更好的處理不利的大幅運(yùn)動(dòng)。我們馬上就會(huì)解釋這一點(diǎn)）。市場有無限種可能，比如缺口、逆轉(zhuǎn)、天量、地量、波動(dòng)區(qū)間夸大，波動(dòng)區(qū)間縮小等等（原文有很多術(shù)語，我不會(huì)翻譯，略之。如果有知道的還望指點(diǎn)） Because we have to be prepared for all this and more, it should be no wonder that our exit strategies are often much more complex than our entry strategies. We need to have solutions ready for any problem the market might send our way. As I mentioned earlier, the losses are rarely the problem because we can control those by simply setting a loss point and closing out the trade if the loss point is hit. Here again we are facing an issue of control and it is comforting to know that we do have a great deal of control over our losses. If we want to design a system where the average loss is $487.50 it wouldn't be difficult. We can absolutely control the size of our losses and we must be certain that we do. 由于我們必須應(yīng)對(duì)所有上面提到的以及其他更多情況，毫不奇怪我們的退出策略往往比入市策略更復(fù)雜。我們必須準(zhǔn)備好解決市場給我們提出的難題。正如我早先提到的，損失幾乎不能算得上是一個(gè)問題，因?yàn)槲覀兡芎唵蔚耐ㄟ^設(shè)置止損點(diǎn)來控制我們的損失，如果止損點(diǎn)被觸發(fā)，我們就退出交易。我們又一次面對(duì)控制力的問題，我們很高興的知道我們能在很大程度上控制我們自己的損失。如果我們想設(shè)計(jì)一個(gè)系統(tǒng)，其平均損失不超過487.50$，很容易做到。在損失規(guī)模上我們有絕對(duì)的控制力，我們必須確保我們能做到這一點(diǎn)。 All of our exit strategies have to be carefully planned to be certain that we control what can be controlled. First we must recognize and understand what can be controlled and then we must make certain that we exercise whatever control we have. It may be comforting to know that we can strictly control losses but it is extremely discomforting to realize that we have very little control of our profits. If we have a $500 profit, how do we make it become a $1000 profit? Unfortunately holding on to the trade longer gives us no assurance that we will eventually have a $1,000 profit. 我們必須精心制定我們的每一個(gè)退出策略以確保我們能控制好我們所能控制的。首先我們必須認(rèn)識(shí)并理解那些我們能控制的部分，并確保我們真正做到這一點(diǎn)。高興的是我們能嚴(yán)格控制損失，但十分失望的是我們很少能控制我們的利潤。如果我們有500$盈利，我們?cè)撛趺醋霾拍苁褂優(yōu)?000$。不幸的是，延長持倉時(shí)間并不能保證我們最終能獲得1000$盈利。 In this instance we have very little control but let's see what we can do with the control that we do have. Although the amount of profits can not be controlled in the sense of our somehow forcing them to be larger, they can be controlled in the sense that we don't have to let them become smaller or turn into losses. Those of you who have purchased any of our systems will appreciate that locking in open profits at various levels is important to the success of our trading strategies. You will notice that in the "25 X 25" Bond System (free on the web site) we use a very tight channel to help lock in profits after twenty-five days or after five Average True Ranges of profit. We can't control the market and force it to give us five ATRs of profit, but if it does we can make sure that we keep most of it. Protecting our open profits is definitely within our control. 面對(duì)盈利，我們的控制力很小，但讓我們看看我們確實(shí)擁有的控制力能讓我做些什么。盡管從促使盈利增大的角度來說，我們無法控制我們盈利的大小，但從防止贏利變小或變成損失的角度來說，我們能控制我們盈利的大小。那些購買過我們交易系統(tǒng)的人將會(huì)認(rèn)識(shí)到鎖定各種水平的浮動(dòng)盈利對(duì)交易策略的成功來說非常重要，并注意到我們?cè)?25 X 25" Bond系統(tǒng)中使用一種非常狹窄的區(qū)間幫我們?cè)?5天后或者在獲得5倍ATRs的盈利后鎖定浮動(dòng)盈利。我們不能控制市場，我們也不能強(qiáng)迫市場給我們5倍ATRs的盈利，但我們能確保我們能獲得大部分浮動(dòng)盈利。無疑保護(hù)我們的浮動(dòng)盈利在我們的控制范圍之內(nèi)。 When conceptualizing a new trading system and when going through the design and testing routine, be alert to issues of control. Look for what you can control and make sure that you are controlling it to your benefit. Look at what you can not control and as a minimum have some plan that will minimize any possible damage. Thinking about control will make you a better trader and implementing control will make your systems trade better. 在構(gòu)思交易系統(tǒng)時(shí)，在檢查系統(tǒng)時(shí)，在檢驗(yàn)系統(tǒng)時(shí)，要注意控制問題。關(guān)注你所能控制的并確保將事情往有利于你自己的方向發(fā)展。關(guān)注你不能控制的部分，并制定計(jì)劃將可能的傷害降到最低。思考控制問題會(huì)使你成為一個(gè)更好的交易者，實(shí)現(xiàn)控制力將會(huì)使你的系統(tǒng)交易的更成功 點(diǎn)評(píng)： |
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